Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Persons Aged >=12 Years with Reported Contact with COVID-19 Cases, February - September 2021 (preprint)

Individuals in contact with persons with COVID-19 are at high risk of developing COVID-19, but protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines in the context of known exposure is unknown. Symptomatic outpatients reporting acute onset of COVID-19-like illness and tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled. Among 2,229 participants, 283/451 (63%) of those reporting contact and 331/1778 (19%) without known contact tested SARS-CoV-2 positive. Using the test-negative design, adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 71% (95% confidence interval, 49%-83%) among fully vaccinated participants reporting contact versus 80% (95% CI, 72%-86%) among those without. This study supports COVID-19 vaccination and highlights the importance of efforts to increase vaccination coverage.

SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Response is Associated with Age in Convalescent Outpatients (preprint)

COVID-19 has had an unprecedented global impact on human health. Understanding the antibody memory responses to infection is one tool needed to effectively control the pandemic. Among 173 outpatients who had virologically confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, we evaluated serum antibody concentrations, microneutralization activity, and enumerated SARS-CoV-2 specific B cells in convalescent blood specimens. Serum antibody concentrations were variable, allowing for stratification of the cohort into high and low responders. Serum antibody concentration was associated with microneutralization activity and participant age, with participants under the age of 30 showing the lowest antibody level. Neither participant sex, the timing of blood sampling following the onset of illness, nor the number of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein specific B cells correlated with serum antibody concentration. These data suggest that young adult outpatients did not generate as robust antibody memory, compared with older adults. Further, serum antibody concentration or neutralizing activity trended but did not significantly correlate with the number of SARS-CoV-2 memory B cells. These findings have direct implications for public health policy and current vaccine efforts. Knowledge gained regarding antibody memory following infection will inform the need for vaccination in those previously infected and allow for a better approximation of population-wide protective immunity.

mRNA Vaccine Effectiveness against COVID-19 among Symptomatic Outpatients Aged >=16 Years in the United States, February to May 2021 (preprint)

Evaluations of vaccine effectiveness (VE) are important to monitor as COVID-19 vaccines are introduced in the general population. Research staff enrolled symptomatic participants seeking outpatient medical care for COVID-19-like illness or SARS-CoV-2 testing from a multisite network. VE was evaluated using the test-negative design. Among 236 SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test-positive and 576 test-negative participants aged [≥]16 years, VE of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19 was 91% (95% CI: 83-95) for full vaccination and 75% (95% CI: 55-87) for partial vaccination. Vaccination was associated with prevention of most COVID-19 cases among people seeking outpatient medical care.

Clinical symptoms among ambulatory patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

We compared symptoms and characteristics of 4961 ambulatory patients with and without laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Findings indicate that clinical symptoms alone would be insufficient to distinguish between COVID-19 and other respiratory infections (e.g., influenza) and/or to evaluate the effects of preventive interventions (e.g., vaccinations).

Proposed Clinical Indicators for Efficient Screening and Testing for COVID-19 Infection from Classification and Regression Trees (CART) Analysis (preprint)

Background: The introduction and rapid transmission of SARS CoV2 in the United States resulted in implementation of methods to assess, mitigate and contain the resulting COVID-19 disease based on limited knowledge. Screening for testing has been based on symptoms typically observed in inpatients, yet outpatient symptom complexes may differ. Methods: Classification and regression trees (CART) recursive partitioning created a decision tree classifying enrollees into laboratory-confirmed cases and non-cases. Demographic and symptom data from patients ages 18-87 years who were enrolled from March 29-April 26, 2020 were included. Presence or absence of SARSCoV2 was the target variable. Results: Of 736 tested, 55 were positive for SARS-CoV2. Cases significantly more often reported chills, loss of taste/smell, diarrhea, fever, nausea/vomiting and contact with a COVID-19 case, but less frequently reported shortness of breath and sore throat. A 7-terminal node tree with a sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 53%, and an AUC of 78% was developed. The positive predictive value for this tree was 14% while the negative predictive value was 99%. Almost half (44%) of the participants could be ruled out as likely non-cases without testing. Discussion: Among those referred for testing, negative responses to three questions could classify about half of tested persons with low risk for SARS-CoV2 and would save limited testing resources. These questions are: was the patient in contact with a COVID-19 case? Has the patient experienced 1) a loss of taste or smell; or 2) nausea or vomiting? The outpatient symptoms of COVID-19 appear to be broader than the well-known inpatient syndrome.